Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Previewing and predicting the 2011 women's Australian Open

Tournament Preview:

There comes a time where every top player has to prove their worth. A time where the naysayers need to be silenced, and a player’s legacy can deservedly be edged in stone. For world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki, that time appears to be now-or-never. Grinding her way to the top spot in the rankings, the Danish firecracker has yet the reach the finals of a Major event.

Adding to the concerns of the current top seed, she recently changed racket companies to begin the season, and while that normally wouldn’t be the greatest issue for a player, her new Yonex stick is a completely different head shape from her previous Babolat model.

Keeping that in mind, Wozniacki remains the ring leader in a hungry field of a 128 women. In the absence of defending champ Serena Williams, No. 2 seed Vera Zvonareva, No. 3 seed Kim Clijsters and No. 4 seed Venus Williams will attempt to pick up the slack of the five-time former winner.

Although she’ll be ranked No. 11 at the event, Justine Henin could be the most dangerous player in the draw. Apart from the confidence and experience of Clijsters, Henin remains the most adept hard-court player in the tournament.

In stark contrast to the top heavy dominated game on the men’s circuit, the competition on the WTA remains wide open and full of great opportunity.

With seven Grand Slam winners in the draw, let’s now take a look at the top four seeds and their path’s to a possible semifinal appearance.

First quarter

This isn't what top-seeded Caroline Wozniacki needed. Already struggling early this year, she could have used an easy match against a low-ranked opponent to get settled in Melbourne. Instead she gets a veteran in Gisela Dulko. If the 20-year-old survives, maybe defeating Dulko will give her a jolt of confidence. Unfortunately for her, it doesn't get much easier from there, with Dominika Cibulkova, Jarmila Groth, Yanina Wickmayer and Marion Bartoli rounding out the field.

The bottom half has so many question marks the matches should be played at The Riddler's tennis court. Can Justine Henin get back on track? Can Francesca Schiavone defend her seed? Will we see the Svetlana Kuznetsova who made it to at least the quarters in six of nine Grand Slams from 2007-2009 or the one who failed to make it past the fourth round in any of last year's majors? And can Bethanie Mattek-Sands make some noise in her first Australian Open? (Is it really her first?)

Semifinalist: Cibulkova

Second quarter

For the first time in a few majors, Maria Sharapova isn't thought of as a dark horse candidate to win the title. Now that the expectations are low, will she come through? She'd have to get past Venus Williams, whose draw sets up nicely for a deep run. I like Venus to win that possible fourth-round match, though. The quarterfinal, however, could be trickier. Coming off her upset over Kim Clijsters on Saturday (Australian time), Li Na is poised to make another semifinal run in Melbourne.

Semifinalist: Li Na

Third quarter

Poor Dinara Safina. She drew Kim Clijsters in the first round. Poor Ana Ivanovic, too. She'd been playing well enough to have made a deep run in Melbourne given the right draw. As it is, if she makes it to the fourth round, she'll see Ms. Clijsters. Then again, Clijsters laid an egg last year in Melbourne, so anything is possible. (Except a Safina first-round win.)

Semifinalist: Clijsters

Fourth quarter

Sam Stosur's draw is soft. Vegemite soft. It wouldn't be until facing No. 2 seed Vera Zvonareva in the quarters that the Aussie could face a problematic opponent, and that's assuming Vera even gets that's far. Expect Stosur to please the hometown crowd and come out of the bottom part of the draw.

Semifinalist: Stosur

Best first-round match:

Caroline Wozniacki (1) vs. Gisela Dulko

Best first-round upset possibility:

Alison Riske over Svetlana Kuznetsova (23)

Best possible third-round match:

Nadia Petrova (13) vs. Ana Ivanovic (19)

Best possible quarterfinal:

Venus Williams (4) vs. Li Na (9)

Semifinal predictions:

Li Na over Cibulkova

Clijsters over Stosur

Finals predition:

Clijsters over Li Na

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